Following my earlier post about the report from the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University on shale gas and the impact on European energy geopolitics, I wrote a longer piece for Natural Gas for Europe. It can be found here. Below is the introduction to the lengthy piece.
The potential of shale gas to alter the geopolitical landscape of energy is becoming too delicious to ignore. The recent report by researchers from the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University determines that Russia will become a shriveled supplier to the European market by 2040. According to the report, Russian exports will only comprise 13% of the European gas mix, compared to 27% in 2009. The dramatic impact, as determined by the researchers, will be the scrapping of South Stream and altering supply sources for Nabucco. Europe will thwart Russia’s energy weapon by utilizing the increased liquidity in the European and global gas markets. The findings suggest that the overall impact on Europe, of exploited shale gas plays, will be a more independent continent with a reorientation towards the foreign policies of the United States. However, this perspective overlooks fundamental realities about the geopolitics of gas in Central and Eastern Europe and how US foreign policy should respond.
For the rest of the analysis please visit here at Natural Gas for Europe.